Economic Interplay Forecasting Business Success

Economic Forecasting *

Forecasts guide decisions in all areas of economics and finance and their value can only be understood in relation to, and in the context of, such decisions. We discuss the central role of the loss function in helping determine the forecaster’s objectives. Decision theory provides a framework for both the construction and evaluation of forecasts. This framework allows an understanding of the ch...

Business Forecasting Methods

An organization needs to develop a forecasting system involving several approaches to predicting uncertain events. Such forecasting systems require the development of expertise in identifying forecasting problems, applying a range of forecasting methods, selecting appropriate methods for each problem, and evaluating and refining forecasting methods over time. It is also important to have strong...

Business Conditions & Forecasting – Exponential

Dr. Thomas C. Chiang LECTURE 2 MOVING AVERAGES AND EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING OVERVIEW This lecture introduces time-series smoothing forecasting methods. Various models are discussed, including methods applicable to nonstationary and seasonal time-series data. These models are viewed as classical time-series model; all of them are univariate. LEARNING OBJECTIVES • Moving averages • Forecasting using...

Advances in Economic Forecasting

Forecasting Economic Processes

When the assumption of constancy fails the in-sample fit of a model may be a poor guide to exante forecast performance. We exposit a number of models, methods and procedures that both illustrate the impact of structural breaks, or non-constancy, on forecast accuracy, and offer an improved forecast performance. We argue that a theory of forecasting that allows for strutural breaks is feasible, a...